Cedi’s Rollercoaster in 2025: From GH¢15.50 to GH¢10.30 and Back to GH¢11.90

 

Cedi’s Rollercoaster in 2025

The Ghana cedi has experienced one of its most unpredictable years in recent history. It began 2025 trading at GH¢14.70 per dollar. By February, it slipped slightly to GH¢15.50 but then held steady until April—marking one of the longest periods of stability in over a decade.

The real surprise came between April and May when the cedi surged, strengthening rapidly from GH¢15.50 to GH¢10.30 in just five weeks. From May through early August, it stayed stable around GH¢10.3–GH¢10.5. But by mid-August, the momentum reversed, and in only three weeks, the cedi weakened to GH¢11.90, ranking among the worst-performing currencies in Q3 2025.

Cedi’s Rollercoaster 

Interestingly, external conditions remain favorable. Gold prices are at record highs, the U.S. dollar is relatively weak, and the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates—all factors that usually support the cedi. Instead, the current pressure is largely domestic.

Remittances Slow Down

Remittances, a vital source of foreign exchange, have declined. The earlier strength of the cedi reduced the incentive for Ghanaians abroad to send money home. For example, $100 in April equaled GH¢1,550 (enough to buy 150 cement blocks), but by May the same $100 brought just GH¢1,030 (only 100 blocks). Many senders chose to wait, expecting the cedi to weaken so their dollars would fetch more. This pause reduced dollar inflows just as import demand was climbing.

Imports and Dollar Supply

Traders also rushed to import goods while the cedi was strong, boosting demand for foreign exchange. At the same time, the Bank of Ghana (BoG) appears to have scaled back its interventions in the market.

The IMF had earlier cautioned that the BoG was intervening too aggressively after injecting about $1.4 billion in Q1 2025. The Bank has since pledged to roll out a formal framework for forex interventions by the end of September. The recent slowdown may be a trial run ahead of that policy change.

Cedi Continues Depreciation

Policy Adjustments and Market Alignment

Another factor is the persistent gap between the interbank rate (GH¢10.30 per dollar) and the forex bureau rate (GH¢11–GH¢12). Allowing some depreciation on the official side could help narrow the gap and restore market balance.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Ghana has intensified regulatory enforcement. Businesses are being reminded that pricing in dollars is illegal, stricter documentation is now required for importers, and remittance operators bypassing regulations face tighter scrutiny.

What Lies Ahead?

Despite recent volatility, the cedi’s performance in 2025 has been extraordinary. Whether stability returns will depend more on the Bank of Ghana’s policy discipline than on global factors.

With gold prices near $3,500 per ounce and foreign reserves above $11 billion, the BoG still has the resources to stabilize the market. For now, panic may be premature.